According to the Cytonn 2022 market outlook, Kenya’s economy is expected to increase at a rate of 4.5 percent in 2022, owing to businesses’ sustained recovery from the pandemic’s negative effects.
The forecast, which was downgraded from 5.9%, was ascribed to irregular weather impacting agricultural yield and the general elections in August 2022.
The projection is lower than the 5.9% expected growth for 2021, given the irregular weather affecting Kenya’s agricultural produce and the August 2022 general elections, which risk upsetting the macroeconomic climate. This is according to Cytonn’s Senior Investment Analyst, Ann Wacera.
Cytonn’s investors predict inflation to continue within the government’s goal range of 2.5-7.5 percent, with an average of 6.3 percent.
They did say, however, that rising global crude oil prices would continue to put downward pressure on inflation.
They expect the Kenya shilling to trade between Sh112.0 to Sh117.0 vs the US dollar in 2022, owing to rising global crude oil prices, which could lead to higher dollar demand from oil and energy importers.
In the short term, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to keep the accommodating policy stance adopted in 2020 to protect the economy from the pandemic’s negative consequences.
Following a cumulative 125 basis point cut from 8.25 percent in January 2020, the MPC has kept the CBR at 7.00 percent since April 2020.
Furthermore, Cytonn’s forecast for government borrowing in 2022 is negative.
“We expect the government to borrow aggressively from both the domestic and foreign markets as it aims to plug in the fiscal deficit, which is projected to come in at Sh1.4 trillion in the FY’2021/22 equivalent to 11.4% of the GDP,” Cytonn.
Due to the more favorable economic environment, Cytonn forecasts continuous progress in revenue collection in 2022.